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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday said Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook is forecast to hit 4.4 per cent in 2026, enhancing reforms and macroeconomic.
This information was contained in IMF January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.”
According to the Fund, Nigeria’s economy is projected to maintain a steady expansion path, rising from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025, and then to 4.4 per cent in 2026.
The new figure represents a 0.2 per cent point upward revision from the Fund projection last year.
Accord to IMF, “Nigeria’s improved outlook mirrors a broader pickup across sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is projected to reach 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027. The growth became possible due to macroeconomic stabilisation and continued reform efforts across key economies.
“At the global level, the IMF projected growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, noting that the world economy remains resilient despite persistent uncertainties. The outlook, the Fund said, reflects a “balancing of divergent forces,” as the negative effects of changing trade policies are being offset by rising investment in technology and artificial intelligence (AI).”
The Fund explained that in Nigeria, energy prices would serve as a critical factor on shaping the 2026 outlook.
The Fund projected that “energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026,” largely due to weak global demand.
The body also warned that “risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, including “Escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine, with potential spillovers to supply chains;
“Renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures,” which could heighten global uncertainty, and “High public debt and fiscal deficits,” capable of exerting upward pressure on long-term interest rates.
To sustain growth, the IMF urged Nigerian authorities to focus on “rebuilding fiscal buffers” and pressing ahead with “structural reforms without delay.”
The IMF concluded that Nigeria’s ability to meet its 2026 growth target will depend on the “consistent implementation of reforms” and the country’s capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.
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